Here are four demographic trends from the Urban Land Institute report:
TREND 4: Immigrants – both legal and illegal: They are nearly 40 million strong. They often prefer multi-generational households and if they can afford them, larger homes in neighborhoods with a strong sense of community.
I think the trend toward multi-generational households has had more effect on Palm Coast than any other and it is woefully underreported. Maronda Homes came into town offering very large, very low priced homes. Ugly two story Marondas sprung up in the middle of nice looking streets. Often two of them, side by side, because the builder purchased a ton of Palm Coast lots and sold primarily “spec” houses. That is they built the house and then offered it for sale. They suffered from poor quality. Today their quality has improved and, because of “size for price” and availability of a ‘spec’ homes, they are still selling lots of homes here. An example from a building permit they pulled in January…
Maronda Homes 13 Seathorn Path Sq. feet: 2,399 Value: $79,432
Many large, four bedroom houses were purchased by lower income families who wanted to move a relative or friend in with them to share the expenses. Look at the number of the cars in the driveways and yards.
Someone should do a count on how much the “average number of people over age 30 living in a single family house” has increased. I think we would be amazed.
But I disagree the best way to describe the trend is “Immigrants”. Yes, unlike modern Americans, foreign speaking residents seem to take more responsibility for caring for their relatives; have more tribal instincts in that respect. When I grew up in the 40’s having two generations in one house was common. My Grandparents took in newly married children (they had 9) and helped them get started. And occasionally, because average lifespans were then at about 65, a grown child would take in an aging parent.
Now the prime motivator for multi-family living and multi-person living is almost always economics, not compassion. We have defacto, multi-family houses all over the place. Especially in parts of the P and R sections where houses are filled with an assortment of “roommates” sharing the expenses and earning money in lets call it “the new underground” economy.
Unfortunately. Our leaders think it is not good politics or good for business to publish this information. Police reports on gang crime in our Palm Coast schools and in our neighborhoods is not given much, if any, airtime or newspaper time or newsletter time. The problem is buried. It may be very small. Is it? Is it growing? Where?? Public access to this politically incorrect information is limited and obscured.
I think a good reporter who befriended our police and first responders could write a blog or newsletter that would get more subscribers than the circulation of all our local papers put together.
Our emergency responders need community support to run bad guys out of town. Hiding the existence of drug dealers and gangs is not a good economic strategy. Identifying who and where they are is. If you want to write this type Blog or Newsletter, maybe I can help. Send me a note.
I have no young children. I don’t need a Predators List as badly as my children who are raising my grandchildren. I would like a similar report on where our convicted drug dealers and gang members live. We are a town of many retirees. We want to be safe. If you know someone in our local government who wants to take on the issues of exposing crime and drugs in Palm Coast in order to limit them; let me know.
I worked in NYC and knew what streets to avoid and where and when to be careful. This information is carefully guarded from me here in Palm Coast. If I am wrong and uninformed, let me know. Send me a comment about what you know or have heard. We need a Palm Coast internet Crime Watch!
The other trend I think is especially pertinent to Palm Coast is:
TREND 3. Generation Y: They are larger than the baby boom generation (with a population of about 86 million). As they enter the housing market, they are less interested in homeownership than their parents were when they were young adults. “They will be renters by necessity or choice for years ahead,” says John K. McIlwain, author of the report.
I believe this is and will continue to happen. But Generation Y is not flocking to Palm Coast. We are jobless. However, in Palm Coast, divorces, foreclosures, lack of credit, retirees from cold climates and economically challenged downsizers are contributing to this paradigm shift to leasing instead of purchasing their homes. I like “leasing” and think long-term leases, where the tenant has an incentive to maintain and upgrade their home because he will be there long enough that it will become part of their identity, has already begun.
The stigma of being a “renter” and therefore, like “trailer trash”, someone who doesn’t maintain and take pride in their home because the physical structure is owned by someone else, is passing.
In my neighborhood within Pine Lakes you cannot tell by looking which houses are rented and which are owner-occupied. This trend is being accelerated by buyers from overseas who never did own their home, but took pride in its appearance.
Personal Anecdote: Recently I offered to put $10,000 in capital improvements into a rental property in Sea Colony. The absentee owners were committed landlords; they did not want to sell. I asked if they would give me a seven year lease. They turned me down. Not on the rent I offered. They did not want a long term lease. The place stayed unrented and run down and has depreciated along with the rest of the market.
This is the exact reverse of the commercial market. I rented several offices in NYC on a long term basis and made leasehold improvements. The landlords were delighted. This is how business space is rented. I think residential will catch up. If you have a residential property you are willing to rent for five or more years, Talk To Ted. I have made different arrangements, but maybe I can help you with my experience and advice.
The other two trends in the Urban Land Institute research are:
TREND 1. Aging baby boomers (ages 55 to 64 years old): They will keep working, and many will be forced to stay in their suburban homes until values recover. Those who are able to move will choose mixed-age living environments that cater to active lifestyles. Walkable suburban town centers also will appeal to this group.
TREND 2. Younger baby boomers (46 to 54 years old): They are now entering their prime earning years but they will lack home equity and, unlike the older members of their generation, they won’t be able to purchase second homes. This will likely curb the prospects for the second-home market.
You can read the entire thing at:
http://www.floridarealtors.org/NewsAndEvents/article.cfm?id=231520
Pass this Blog along to any of your friends who are thinking about moving to Florida. I am a single agent Buyers Broker who can help them find the best location. tedleshersr@gmail.com
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